purpill

At what I believe is minimal risk of unbalancing meta-stability, here is a sketch of a narrative.

At some point in early 2010s, Russia decides Ukraine is tilting towards nato with certainty of course. A bird’s eye view may have corroborated a corralling of Ukraine into the western fold. To Russia this was perceived as a malign subversion of the terms between USSR and the Western Bloc in 1991 that understood and defined Ukraine’s role as a denuclearized buffer state.

On Nuclear. It is not wise to back Russia into a corner. They can go toe-to-toe in any nuclear exchange and it is not in anyone’s interest– not Ukraine’s, Europe’s, or America’s — to back them into a corner where talk of nuclear escalation as a route to re-establishing great power status is not a worthy objective.

How to proceed. The current position is one of defensive advantage assured by battlefield drones that would seemingly make any breakthrough near impossible and marginal gains exceedingly painful. Ukraine and Russia should settle on the current zones of control and seek a broad peace arrangement that ideally involves de-militarization of the border if that is possible.

Spiritual Footing — Jocko Wilink (Extreme Ownership)